Basic Strategy For Winning At DFS Baseball
The baseball season is underway and there is a lot of excitement about daily fantasy baseball especially on Fanduel. Look for weekly articles on Fantasy Sports Int. focused on the WFBC and how to potentially get your seat to play for $1 Million dollars throughout the season. This week I am going to focus on some of the basics with Fanduel to get you started.
Cash Games 50-50 & Head2heads
- Nail your pitcher first, on FD you receive 12 points for a win. Draft Kings its 4 pts. If you are going to win your 50-50 or head2heads you need the win. Look at Vegas lines first,see which pitchers are -160 or above favorites, then K per 9 innings. Find the pitcher that fits this and rooster him. Build players that have great match-ups and low in the order. You can even stack in cash games, find a pitcher to target.Check park factors also, you really want a pitchers park.
- Lineup order: Try to stay within the first 5 in the lineup. 1-5
- If you can roster visiting teams your 1-5 will get maximum appearances. Plate appearances is crucial in cash games.
Make sure to check the weather, i like targeting games where the temperature is over 60 degrees.
Fan Duel Daily Fantasy Baseball
Salary Cap – $35,000
Roster Composition – P, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF (nine players)
Position Eligibility – Fixed, Single
Avg Per Cost Per Position – $3888
Avg Salary Range per Player – Hitters $2200-$6000; Pitchers $4000-$10000.
Hitters: 1B = 3pt, 2B = 6pts, 3B = 9pts, HR = 12pts, RBI = 3.5pt, R = 3.2pt, BB = 3pt, SB = 6pts,
HBP = 3,
Pitchers: W = 12pts, ER = -3pt, SO = 3pt, IP = 3pt*
Because Fanduel has fixed positions on rosters and players are limited to just one position, this limits the amount of roster flexibility. The other side of this is that their salaries are not that tight so finding value is easier, most of the time the salary algorithm is three to five days behind. With only one starting pitcher and with 4 points going towards a win (equivalent to either 4 IP or 4 K’s), getting it right is crucial to your success. The good part about pitching is that you are not penalized for walks and hits, so bombing out is also near impossible. It is all about the Win, Strikeouts, and Innings Pitched. And because there are roster limitations (no UTIL) and single position eligibility, certain positions become your value plays. Positions like catcher and shortstop have a lot more emphasis placed on them for you to find value because you really want to load up most nights at 1B, 3B, and at least 1 OF spot. There are no extra penalties for strikeouts on the hitter side, so taking power hitters is also key.
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Factors for Outperforming Salary
One of the biggest keys in Daily Fantasy Baseball is knowing how to extract value from players on a given night. Here are some of the things to consider:
1. Opposite handed hitter vs starting pitcher (RHB vs LHP, LHB vs RHP): You gain about a 50 point edge in OPS when taking a RHB vs. LHP or LHB vs RHP instead of a RHB vs RHP, and it jumps to almost 100 points when looking at LHB vs LHP.
2. Batting Order: You want to select players batting in the 1-6 spots in the batting order. There is a significant drop off in OPS when they are in the 7-9 position in the batting order, especially in the National League. Especially look for hitters who jump in the order due to favorable platoon splits or an injury to a 1-5 hitter.
3. Facing “Finesse” starting pitcher (defined as in the bottom 1/3 of the league in strikeouts plus walks – low k/high bb rate arm): You gain 90 points on OPS taking a hitter against a finesse pitcher.
4. Facing “Flyball” starting pitcher (defined as in the bottom 1/3 of the league in ratio of fly ball outs to ground ball outs): You gain 15 points on OPS taking a hitter against a fly ball pitcher.
5. Favorable hitting environment: Look for OPS situations that are at least .720 or higher based on handedness in the ballpark. Notorious hitting parks like Texas, Toronto, Colorado, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and New York AL. Vegas total on the game is at least 8.5 runs or higher.
1. Heavy favorite to win the game according to the Vegas money line: Anything -150 or higher is a good barometer.
2. Weak opposing lineup with a penchant for striking out at a high clip: Highest K rates versus LHP in 2013 (Astros, Mets, Twins, Braves, Pirates) and highest K rates versus RHP in 2013 (Astros, Twins, Braves, Mariners, Mets)
3. Opposing lineup in the bottom 5 wOBA: Lowest wOBA versus LHP in 2013 (Marlins, Astros, Padres, Mets, White Sox) and Lowest wOBA versus RHP in 2013 (Mariners, Marlins, White Sox, Mets, Cardinals)
4. Favorable pitching environment: Look for OPS situations that are at least .720 or less based on the handedness in the ballpark. Notorious pitcher parks are Citi Field (Mets), Miami, SF Giants, Seattle, LA Dodgers, Oakland, Minnesota, San Diego, Tampa Bay. Vegas total on the game is at least 7.5 runs or lower.
5. Pitcher is at home and has at least 8.0 K/9
In order to win on Fanduel, you need to know what scores are needed when projecting players. Breaking down each position and category gives you the baselines needed to correctly project the players who will outperform their salary.
Tournaments (Guaranteed Prize Pool) – 60 (avg. score to take 1st place in a large field tournament)
Target Score – 60 points; 9 players on roster
14-18 Fantasy Points Pitcher
40-50 Fantasy Points Hitting (5.00 – 6.00 average points per player)
Value Salary Range = $2200-$2900
Mid Tier Salary Range = $3000-$3900
Top Tier Salary Range = $4000-$6000
Sample Breakdown by Scoring Category for Target Score (60 Points)
Starting Pitcher – 7 IP, 7 K, 2 ER, 1 W (16 Points)
Hitters – 8 R (8), 10 RBI (10), 4 BB (4), 4 1B (4) , 4 2B (8), 2 HR (8), 2 SB (4), 10 Outs (-2.50)
Head to Head / 50-50 Double Up Target Score (35-40 Points)
Breakdown by Scoring Category for Target Score (35-40 Points)
Starting Pitcher – 6 IP, 5 K, 3 ER, 1 W (12 Points)
Hitters – 5 R (5), 6 RBI (6), 3 BB (3), 3 1B (3) , 3 2B (6), 1 HR (4), 1 SB (2), 15 Outs (-3.75)