NBA Dfs is back and we have a small three game slate to open the season. Being that is such a small slate don’t go crazy with your bankroll. How are we going to write these articles this season? I’ve had a lot of positive feedback with my NFL articles so I’m going to try to stick to that type of form. Let me state this point from the start this is not a picks article. There are so many picks articles out there and I don’t want to be just another article. What I want to accomplish is teach the theory behind the picks and you do that by understanding game flow and roster construction. Now if your looking for great picks head over to the free picks section on the site or become a premium member and you will get what you need. I will be including shell lineups in a couple weeks when we have some data to work with. Let’s begin roster construction and remember we are looking to roster players with 5-6x value in relation to salary.
Cavaliers vs Knicks 9.5 o/u 198.5
I really like games that have a total over 200 but on a three game slate we can’t just rule out a game. This is a hard game to figure out as the Knicks have completely reshaped their roster with the additions of Derek Rose, Joahkim Noah, Brandon Jennings, and Courtney Lee . I’m not really sure how minutes will be distributed and to further complicate matters Cleveland is an elite defensive team and we don’t want to go out of our way to pick on them. We do know Carmelo Anthony will have an elite usage rate and he typically performs well against Lebron. Courtney Lee can be considered as a salary saver and can legitimately give you 5x value at a salary of $3900. On the cavaliers side we have definite blow out risk so we can’t be sure that the starters will get a full run of minutes. For cavaliers exposure I’ll stick to Lebron James and I will consider Kyrie Irving at $7100 . Irving is scoring dependent but his minutes may be more secure than any other cavaliers player as Kay Felder ( Irving’s backup) is in league concussion protocol and not likely to play.
Trailblazers vs Jazz 5.5. O/u 192
On a full slate of games this is another game I would usually avoid as the Jazz are a good defensive team that plays at a slow pace. From the Portland side Damian Lillard and C J McCollum will take the majority of the teams shots and if I had to choose I would go with Lillard. Utah presents us with an opportunity to get some value into our lineups. Derek Favors has not played most of the season so Tre Lyles $4000 seems like the player to benefit most from his absence. He could easily 5x his salary with room for more. Rudy Gobert is my favorite center on the slate . With Gordon Hayward ruled out and Favors unlikely to play Gobert’s usage should increase ,and his ability to block shots and rebound against a poor Blazers front court should be taken advantage of.
Warriors vs Spurs 9.0 o/u 2
Golden state vs SAN Antonio 9 o/u 211
The best offensive team vs the best defensive team in the league. It’s not often that we will see the Spurs at an almost double digit underdog but here we are. People are going to want to roster Kyle Anderson $3500 but just know he is the 5th option offensively for the Spurs and I’m not sure that he will be involved enough in the offense to reach 5x value. In addition due to all the talented small forwards playing on the slate I don’t think you will be able to compete against your opponents if you pay down at small forward. The Spurs are going to be forced to pay up in pace and have the third highest implied team total of 101 . Kawai Leonard is plug and play for me as he contributes in all areas of the stat sheet. I’ll also have to take a strong look at Lamarcus Aldridge. Golden state has an implied team total of 110 points which i Highest on the slate. This will be one of the few times this season that we see the warriors starters play into the 4th quarter as I believe the Spurs will compete in this game. I’m not against paying up for curry and Durant in this game I’m not interested in Klay Thompson as he will be the third option and kawai Leonard may guard the 2 in this game. Z Z pachulia interests me as a cheap center if your not paying up for Gobert.
Don’t forget to get your NBA line ups here!