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Evan’s Final Thoughts on Week 5 in the NFL

Week 5 is upon us and as much as I’m looking toward to the start of the NBA season , I can’t help but feel that the football season is moving to fast. The good thing about week 5 is we are hitting the sweet part of the season, as we have trends that  are developing which we can now back up with facts. Remember as the season continues are sample size grows and the picture becomes clearer. I didn’t say it would get easier though , however as I stated on our podcast if you stick to the following formula

Matchup+opportunity+price=player

You will find that your bankroll grows more often than not. On a personal note I have made a adjustment in my lineup process . Typically I’m a one lineup guy my cash lineup is a lineup that I would feel comfortable rolling out in all formats but an adjustment needed to be made so I have done it.

On to the final thoughts
Class is in session

Quarterback
I’m not sure if I’m spending down at this position this week. Spending up unlike last season is a thing this year

The lone cheap guy
Brian Hoyer $6000
I was a lot higher in him earlier in the week and he is solid in cash in tournaments , but with so much value that has opened at other positions I don’t think we need him on this slate. Hoyer is very consistent , you will get between 16 points as a low and 20 points as a high which by math is 3x-3.5x which is what you need to take down in tournaments. The colts are ranked 23rd in overall defense and I expect Hoyer to pass approximately 36-40 times. The volume is not my concern it’s there but I’m worried about the state of his receivers as they are pretty banged up.

Tom Brady $8700
In Dfs circles this is being touted as the Tom Brady fu game. I read an article stating that many NFL coaches don’t like it when Brady is angry . Brady has 3 touchdown upside against a Cleveland defense that is ranked 21st in total defense . Cleveland has already given up 10 touchdowns through the air against less skilled quarterbacks , what is angry Tom going to do. It will be chalky and I see no reason not to start Brady in cash games based on all the value that has opened unless you decide to start

Ben Roethlisberger $8600
Yes Ian after the pod cast I dialed up my research on Big Ben and his home road splits are really Drew Bree’s like . That’s the beautiful thing about listening to pod casts it sometimes opens up your thought process to options you might not have previously considered. Big Ben may just be the best quarterback play on the slate. The game script is going to flow towards a passing game as the Jets are rated 3rd against the run ( I still like Bell anyway more on that later)  but 27th against the pass , potentially missing Revis island who may be on vacation this week on the sidelines .

Derek Carr $8200
Minus a bad game against Tennessee he has averaged 23 points a game and gets a matchup against a banged up chargers secondary that’s rated 28th vs the pass.

Consider Eli Manning

Running back
I really want to pay down here, but I’m changing my opinion somewhat. In lieu of not having made a final decision I’ll cover some options at different price points

Deandre Williams $4700
Play him free square must play in all formats. Williams will get 20 touches in this game due to Latavius Murray’s  injury. This is last weeks Jordan Howard.

Terrance West $6400
Yes I know Kenneth Dixon is due back I get it but keep in mind he has not played one down in an NFL game this season. Washington is the worst rated defense in the NFL against the run and West averaged 5 yards a carry last week .

Bilal Powell $5100/ Duke Johnson $5300
I group these guys together as this is strictly a game flow play. Both backs are not lead running backs but both players are extremely involved in the passing game , and Pittsburgh and New England are bend but don’t break defenses there should be plenty of opportunities to soak up targets and yardage. I like these plays more on draft kings due to a full point per reception but there is merit to deploying these guys on fan duel.

Jordan Howard $7200
The price just hasn’t caught up to his opportunity not much more to say here

Consider
Leveon Bell especially on draft kings at $7500
CJ Anderson

Super sneaky running back
Devonta Freeman $7400
Some explanation is in order for this one and is strictly a tournament play for me. Tournament play for Evan that statement requires an explanation as well and I’ll tackle that one at the end of the article after I provide the shell lineups . Oh yeah we were talking about Freeman, it’s funny when you put the work in you find some things that others might not be on. Denver is known for a great defense but what people don’t realize is that Denver struggles against pass catching running backs out of the backfield . The other part is Atlanta has a time share at the position between Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Coleman has the sickle cell trait which can put his life in jeopardy,watch the Atlanta roster if they bring a player off the practice squad it will be an indication that Freeman will get all the targets and touches which would be an elite tournament play as the time share will have been removed.

Wide Receiver
Initially I wanted to pay up at this spot but the mid tier is extremely strong so I may have to reconsider my philosophy.

Antonio Brown $9600
Really not much to discuss here .  Lock in load in cash as the Jets are 27th vs the pass and Revis Island is on vacation. Tournaments this is a frightening fade but you may be able to get away with it

Jordy Nelson $8400
I didn’t include him in the pod cast (Ian did) and after digging in a little more I see that he has averaged 9 targets and a touchdown in every game this season . Jordy has leaped up the list for me as a favorite target to use in all formats.

Brandon Marshall $7600
The jets receiving corps is banged up and 15 targets is not out of the question in this matchup against a suspect Steeler secondary.

Ty Hilton $7700
Averaged double digit targets . Yes the Chicago secondary has allowed only one top 20 receiver all season but the targets an opportunity make T Y an elite tournament play

Emmanuel Sanders $7100
Gets 33.3 percent of all of Denver’s targets, gets good red zone usage, and  still returns punts from time to time. Great correlation play with the Denver defense. Need more convincing Sanders is 6th in the league in targets. Great play in all formats

Julian Edelman$7000
People are going to look at the game logs and not play him. If he is healthy that will be a big mistake as Cleveland is extremely vulnerable over the middle of the field and Brady is back

As you can see the mid tier is absolutely loaded and I didn’t even discuss the following players which can be considered
Michael Crabtree $6900
Amari Cooper $7200
Jordan Matthews $7000

A note on Odell Beckham
I’ll have exposure in tournaments but I just can’t trust him in cash at this point

Tight end
Zach Ertz $5600/ Zach Miller $5400 / Kyle Rudolph $5500

I grouped these all together and all can be used  in all formats

Zach Ertz
Detroit is worst in the league defending the position.
Zach Miller
A favorite target of Brian Hoyer. Chicago receivers are banged up
Kyle Rudolph
This requires some explaining. I changed my mind on this one due to the doubtful status of Stefon Diggs . He is Sam Bradford’s security blanket and he consistently gives you 60 yards and a touchdown. My only concern is Houston’s rated the best in the NFL  at defending the tight  end position

Martellus Bennett $6300
Elite tournament play
Gronk is questionable and if I’m using Brady this will differentiate your New England exposure from the rest of the field. Legitimate 2 touchdown upside

Defense
Denver $5100
People have a stigma for paying up for defense. Atlanta offense comes crashing back to earth
Rams $4700
Not much offense in this game Buffalo travels cross country after a win against New England on the road.
Miami $4600
Weather is a factor as the field will have been soaked for two days with rain.
Both offenses aren’t very good .

Kicker
What ever fits

She’ll lineups
Today I’m providing 2 line ups as shells one for cash and one for tournaments . I’m typically a one line up guy but my tournament lineups just haven’t been up to snuff so I’m changing my mindset I’ll now run 2 lineups weekly one for cash and one for tournaments. Keep in mind these are not my actual lineups but just intended to give you a base to work with for your own lineup construction. For actual lineups check back with the site later today or early Tommorrow and strongly consider becoming a premium member!!!

Here are the shells

Cash
Ben Roethlisberger $8600
D Washington $4700
T west $6400
J Nelson $8400
A Brown $9600
Jacob Edelman $7000
Z Ertz $5600
M Crosby $4500
Broncos $5100

Gpp
B Hoyer $6000
C j Anderson $8000
D Washington $4700
A Brown $9600
J Nelson $8400
J Matthews $7000
M Bennett $6300
S Hanikowski  $4800
Broncos $5100

Good luck this week
Any questions I can always be reached at erboxes@gmail.com up until 2 hours before kick off

 

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