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What To Look For During Week 1 In The NFL

I’m finally going to practice what I preach. I won’t be playing fantasy baseball today. Too many Labor Day weekend plans and zero research time equals a bad day for my bankroll so I’m out today. What I’m going to do instead is start to prepare you for week one NFL action. Did you start to wrap your mind around week one yet ? If not I got you covered. Before we begin about two weeks ago I put out an article about NFL picks, assessing value , understanding game script, pace of game , and general roster construction strategies . If you didn’t read it stop reading and check out that article (it’s archived on the site Blog) as we will be using some of that information over and over again during the entire season. Don’t worry I’ll wait up for you.

Ok your back and caught up, great let’s begin to break down week one. This article is not going to give you specific picks , we will cover that more towards next Thursday. What I want  to do is start to point you towards games that have fantasy value , match ups,  and teams that may be in interesting spots for fantasy success .

The magic formula for week one and beyond is the following

Matchup +opportunity+price = player

NFL week one is always very interesting . Anything and I mean anything can happen . Through the years I have seen it all , teams predicted to be terrible play great, teams that are supposed to good come out flat, and don’t underestimate the power of the crowd for the home team as every home team building is electric on opening day. I’m a big believer in game script, advanced game theory, and projected pace of game so let’s outline a few games to target for our initial research. I can’t stress how important this portion of preparation is as the average guy just doesn’t do it so let’s do the work because do you really want to be average. Let’s move on.

 Initial games that tweak my interest (note all point spreads are less than 5 points and I’m only including the over /under line) Home team in caps,
Oakland vs SAINTS o/u 51
Highest over under on the slate . Raiders have improved their offensive line and seem committed to the run and all the experts are talking about Latavius Murray touting price and opportunity . Me personally I’m not sure just yet. Let’s see if we can work this out during the week but here is some food for thought against Oakland . The experts seem to think Oakland is going to get out to a big lead against the Saints and then run the ball down the Saints throat, but Vegas doesn’t seem to see it that way as the saints are a one point favorite. My thoughts Oakland fly’s to the east coast for an early 1pm start for the Saints home opener against a potentially high powered Saints offense that is traditionally much better at home with something to prove . There is a real possibility that the Raiders come out flat and are playing from behind causing a much larger focus on the passing game. There are going to be a ton of points scored in this game but we have to decide where we think the offense will come from in what I expect to be a very fast paced game further research required on this one

WASHINGTON vs Pittsburgh o/u 50
This is a real sneaky game as I think a lot of people will be afraid of match ups principally Mr Brown vs Mr Norman. I think people are going to be scared of the match-up but should they be. Antonio Brown is going to get his targets in and out of the red zone and as a life long Pitt fan I see the game scheme being to line up Antonio Brown ( who is match-up proof) in the slot where Josh Norman rarely lines up. Is Norman going to follow Brown around the field I doubt it. Deangelo Williams could be a nice play at his price loin and I expect Washington to be playing catchup most of the game making Kirk Cousins and the Washington receivers relevant . The Monday night hammer is going to make people money in week one get exposure to this game your bankroll will thank you.

Giants vs DALLAS
The Giants gave up the third most fantasy points to the quarterback position last season. Does Dak Prescott interest you at a 5k price tag of he doesn’t reread the roster construction article!!!

Buffalo vs BALTIMORE
Defense and kickers , Defense and kickers , defense and kickers

Minnesota vs TENNESSEE
Has the feel of an Adrian Peterson game (25-30 touches not out of the question in this one) low game total and small Vegas point spread matchup + price + opportunity and a season ending injury to  Terry Bridgewater I’m going to have more shares than I probably should of Adrian Peterson in week one

Chicago vs HOUSTON o/u 44
Very sneaky game. Here is an early sleeper that I have to research more and that’s will Fuller. With Deandre Hopkins getting most of the attention against a very poor secondary I can see a big game out of the rookie . Fuller has elite speed and runs very good routes. Now I don’t see him getting targets but I do see him getting 3-4 receptions and a touchdown at a price tag of $5600 I can get behind that.

I could go on and on through the entire slate but that’s not my goal here. My goal is to get you thinking about game script , match ups and pace of the games .
Remember the following equation

Matchup+opportunity+cost=player rostered

Now let’s really begin to dial in our research

Email me anytime:  erboxes@gmail.com

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